How would you create a probabilistic forecast for 40 stories?
This tests your ability to use statistical methods for forecasting. A great answer explains how to use historical throughput in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a probability distribution of completion dates, not a single point estimate.
This tests your ability to move beyond simple averages to statistical forecasting and communicate uncertainty. A great answer outlines using historical throughput (e.g., 10-12 weeks of data) to run a Monte Carlo simulation. This generates a range of dates with confidence levels (e.g., 85% chance of completion by Date X). The key is presenting a probabilistic forecast to manage risk. A major red flag is calculating a single date based on average throughput, which ignores the question's core premise.
Read the original → focusedobjective.com
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