Sensitivity analysis on a growth model
WHAT IT TESTS: finding leverage in a coupled model. OUTLINE: perturb each input by a normalized amount, measure the change in the long-term output, and use elasticities or global methods to rank drivers.
WHAT IT TESTS: whether you can rigorously identify which lever moves a coupled forecast most. ANSWER OUTLINE: vary one input at a time by a normalized percentage and measure the percent change in the long-term output to compute elasticities, then, because sub-models interact, use global methods like Monte Carlo sampling or variance-based sensitivity to capture interactions and nonlinearities, and rank inputs by their influence.
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- #growth-modeling
- #sensitivity-analysis
- #elasticity
- #forecasting
- #monte-carlo
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